Have you ever watched a baby take its first steps? It is quite a sight to see. The baby may wobble back and forth as she or he tries to stand upright and maintain balance. Then a parent coaxes the child to step forward. The child, often while gazing intently at the parent, takes that first tentative step...and then another...and another. The child precariously spans the divide between self and parent. For other children, only one step is taken before falling on their diapered bottoms. Even this minimal success may be followed by cheers from the parent and squeals of delight from the baby. But before long children master the art of walking and the parents face a new challenge...how to keep the child walking in the right direction. Toward the sofa...toward mom or dad—Good! Toward the street—Bad!

It is crucial to move in the right direction. Failure to do so can have tragic, even fatal, results. On a recent morning I was watching the news and learned that overnight three fatal car accidents had occurred in my metropolitan area overnight. Two were the result of vehicles going the wrong way on the highway. It is likely that at the moment these vehicles moved into the lane that took them onto the highway, they believed they were headed in the right direction. It was late, dark, and there was not a lot of traffic on the highway. But it probably did not take too long for the error to be realized as the drivers looked up and saw one or more vehicles headed toward them with headlights blaring in the darkness. Unfortunately, sometimes businesses make changes they think will take them in the right direction. However, what makes sense intuitively sometimes takes us in the wrong direction. The good news? This can easily be avoided. The only way to know for sure what direction to go in is to be well informed. You need to be aware of internal and external forces that may impact the success of your business. One sure means of empowerment is to gain knowledge of the right direction by conducting employee and customer surveys.

Most weekday mornings I get up around 5:00 A.M. to get ready for my work day. Part of my morning routine involves turning on the television to catch the weather forecast. I live in a climate where the weather can be quite variable. In the morning people may be wearing layered clothing and jackets and by the middle of the afternoon they are wearing shorts and T-shirts. Or some days it is just the opposite; you start out in short sleeves and before the day is over the temperature has dropped 20 or 30 degrees and you are grabbing for your jacket. Precipitation here also varies considerably. One moment there is not a cloud in the sky and a few minutes later it is dark and raining so hard you can barely see to drive.

I watch the weather forecast in the mornings in order to be prepared for these temperature and precipitation changes. I feel more prepared for leaving the house if I know what to expect. The forecast enables me to know whether to wear a sweater, jacket, or raincoat, or if I need to take such items with me for use later in the day. Knowledge of the forecast also helps me make an informed decision regarding footwear – Is it okay to wear leather shoes or do I need to wear shoes that are waterproof? Do I need to take an umbrella?

Once I leave home and begin my commute to work, I begin to notice other people on their way to work or school. Observing them, I sometimes come to the conclusion that many of them either did not watch a weather forecast before leaving home that morning or, did so but ignored it. I decide this because I will see people out in short sleeves with no jackets with their arms crossed over, shivering in the 49 degree morning. On other occasions I see people trying to cover their heads with a newspaper or anything else they can find as the rain pours down on them and they have neither a raincoat nor an umbrella.

Unfortunately, I observe the same lack of preparedness in some companies who do not affectively anticipate the behavior of consumers. Some businesses try to be successful by looking to other companies as models of excellence. In an article on factors affecting success in business, written by research professor Spyros Makridakis and published in the European Management Journal, this approach of looking for prescriptions from past success stories is discouraged. Makridakis argues that management theories and tools are like the fashion industry in that they have their moment of glory and die. He observes that very few survive and sometimes their passing leaves extensive corporate damage. When reviewing the large number of theories that have briefly blossomed from the 1960s onwards, he suggests we avoid extrapolating from those past success stories.