Assess political opinion and intentions to improve electability.
A vote in the ballot box cannot be obtained without an understanding of the voter who is casting it. NBRI’s Political Research Surveys provide a window into the hearts and minds of potential voters. A well-designed political poll gathers information about voter intentions and opinions, allowing the candidate to understand how to craft their policies and platform to meet constituent needs.
NBRI political polls provide civic leaders and candidates with the hard data they need to guide specific, targeted action, including:
- Decision making
- Policy formation
- Law making
- Public intent to support
- Identifying concentrations of political supporters
- Identifying the strengths and weaknesses of opponents
- Refining communications for marketing a candidate’s personal attributes, beliefs, policies, and political vision
Surveys conducted in a scientific manner produce accurate data capable of predicting electoral outcomes across all levels of government. Additionally, these surveys can accurately predict and project trends in opinions across a variety of demographic groups.
Political research surveys also have utility at the corporate or organizational level. Companies who invest in lobbying and campaign efforts must have an accurate assessment of a candidate’s stance on a given issue, as well as the probability of a successful run by that candidate.
Nobody wants to back the wrong horse. It is critical for organizations to ensure their political donations are directed toward the proper candidate. Endorsement of an unpopular candidate can damage the reputation of the organization, generate negative publicity, or alienate the winner of the election.
Regardless of the purpose behind the political research survey, it is of paramount importance the survey is administered in a fashion that ensures the data gathered is accurate.
However, gathering the data is just the first step of the process. Understanding and interpreting the results is the second stage of the process, and during this step, NBRI works with you to ensure the conclusions drawn from the data are accurate, logical, and actionable. Our ClearPath Analytics identify the most important issues to constituents, allowing you to take the most appropriate course of action.
Case Study: Political Research Survey
A state legislator was trying to decide whether or not to run for Congress, and wanted to “test the waters” before investing huge amounts of time and money into a campaign. He contacted NBRI to conduct a political research study.
The study showed that 47% of men and 28% of women in the state knew him. Of eligible voters, 57% of men and 78% of women said they would vote for him. He could anticipate 27% of the male vote, and 22% of the female vote from those that knew him, if the election were held that day. He decided to run, but he had work to do on name recognition, and he needed to maximize his resources.
Armed with hard data, the candidate focused on getting his message to those who did not know him and getting out the vote. NBRI conducted weekly pulse studies after campaign launch, and at 6 months, the data showed that of eligible voters that 75% of men and 78% of women knew of the candidate, and that 61% and 59%, respectively, would vote for him. The NBRI model, driven by hard data, projected the candidate would win with 56% of the vote.
The candidate won the election with 57% of the vote, well within the 3% margin of error of the NBRI model. The NBRI political research answered important questions for this candidate: should he run, what level of confidence should he have at various points in time, and who and what should be the focus of his resources and campaign at each of those points in time.
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